Tony Martin-Vegue - "Incentivizing Better Risk Decisions: Lessons from Rogue Actuaries"
Time: 2pm ET / 11am PT / 1pm CT
What do Tom Jones’ chest hair, alien abductions, and Tylenol’s brand recognition have in common? An actuary – somewhere in the world – determined the probability and impact of a loss event and reduced enough uncertainty to issue an insurance policy.
Yet, in the field of risk management, we hear that this is impossible: we can’t measure intangibles; we can’t determine the probability of an event that’s never happened, and oftentimes, measuring probability itself is not possible. The insurance industry shows us that this just isn’t true, and they have the money to prove it. Insurance is a thriving business with excellent margins, built on uncertainty reduction.
Why? The answer lies in incentives. Insurance is based on making uncertainty reduction profitable. With very few exceptions, cyber risk is set up to disincentivize good decisions. Using superstition and gut checks as a cheap replacement for data and utilizing debunked risk models are deemed “good enough” at best, and “really good!” at worst. Attendees will learn about how actuaries have historically tackled these challenges and receive practical tips on how companies and risk managers alike can be incentivized toward better risk decisions.
Tony Martin-Vegue is a writer, speaker and risk expert with a passion for data driven decision making. He brings his expertise in economics, cyber risk quantification and information security to advise senior operational and security leaders on how to integrate evidence-based risk analysis into business strategy. He has led risk teams for several Bay Area financial institutions and in the words of his eight-year-old son, has spent much of the last 20 years “Fighting criminals on the internet.” Tony is also the chair of the San Francisco chapter of the FAIR Institute – a professional organization dedicated to advancing risk quantification.