Speakers: Apps Garcia Price: Free Abstract: Google “risk analysis” and you will get a tad over 1.3 Billion search results, many of which reference risk matrices and “semi-quantitative” risk scoring methods that have well-documented flaws and produce bogus risk estimates. One reason these methods have gained popularity is that they are fast, easy, and cheap as you don’t need any special software and even a second grader can multiply two numbers (likelihood of 5 x impact of 4 = risk rating of 20).
In this talk, we briefly discuss some of the major flaws with popular qualitative and semi-quantitative risk analysis methods and introduce a FREE (as in beer) new Excel™ based tool called the Basic Risk Calculator, which uses proven probabilistic methods to provide better risk estimates.
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