Speakers: Graeme Keith
For many, the PERT distribution is now the go-to distribution for encoding quantitative insights from subject matter experts. But the PERT distribution is an ad hoc, belt-and-braces distribution determined far more by calculation convenience than any meaningful correspondence with the uncertainties we encounter. In this presentation, I will discuss the provenance of the pert distribution and the trouble that lurks both in the parameterization (perilous extreme percentiles and mushy modes) and in its properties (not so variable variance and suspicious scaling).
Graeme is an independent consultant based in Copenhagen, providing advice, training and facilitation in the use of mathematical modelling in a variety of business and policy applications, including risk management, strategy, data analytics, performance management, decision analysis and failure analysis.
Since completing his doctorate in applied mathematics at Cambridge in 2000, Graeme has worked with the practical application of mathematical modelling across a wide variety of fields and industries. First as a research associate at Cambridge and later as an engineering consultant based in Copenhagen, Graeme started out developing mathematical models for failure investigation, risk management and decision analysis.
After 10 years in consultancy, Graeme started applying his analytical acumen to strategy and portfolio management for capital intensive project portfolios, first as head of research at the oil and gas division of DONG E&P and later as exploration portfolio manager at Maersk Oil.
Leveragíng the close relationship between strategy and risk management in the highly volatile oil and gas market, Graeme moved into twin roles as lead strategy advisor and head of enterprise risk management at Maersk, before starting as an independent consultant in 2019.
Graeme teaches at Copenhagen University and the Technical University of Denmark. He is a fellow of the UK institute of Mathematics and its Applications and a chartered mathematician. He is also on the board of the Risk chapter of the Danish Engineering Society.